The 2017 Joint Program in Survey Methodology
What the 2016 Election Taught Us About Public Opinion and Election Polling
Senior Survey Advisor
Pew Research Center
Friday, April 21, 2017; 3:00-4:30 PM
Adele H. Stamp Student Union, Benjamin Banneker Room (2212)
University of Maryland, College Park
Reception immediately following the lecture in the Ballroom Lounge, Stamp Student Union (one floor down).
The failure of pre-election polls to appropriately signal Donald Trump’s likelihood of winning the presidency is a significant blow to the credibility of public opinion research. Similarly, political analysts were repeatedly surprised by the level and sources of support that Trump was able to garner as he decisively defeated the GOP primary field and then battled Hillary Clinton to a close-enough margin in the general election to eke out an Electoral College victory. Drawing on a range of research conducted since the election, my talk will examine the lessons available to be learned from the surprises of the campaign, its polls and its coverage.